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«New Era»
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Fig. 1. Interval of realization of the civilizing events ( T
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years) elapsed from the beginning of our civilization up to nowadays:
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T(+/- 20%) = 1500 0.2 t
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Reliably dated intervals (periods ¹¹ 15-22
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line The numbers of the periods are marked by figures.
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The modern epidemiology strictly insists that the epidemics can not last
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in a region longer than ten
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the famous «Spanish flu» in the 20th century lasted about two years: 1918
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1919). If a new deadly infectious desease appears then the epidemic
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vanishes as soon as the number of the infected and dead a per the number
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of the non-infected and those who recovered exceeds a certain limit. The
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plague endemic in Europe
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impossible because of the climatic conditions. More over
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regions (for instance
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notwithstanding the illness presence. This
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conclusion that no one thousand years period of stagnation of the population
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grow in the 1st 11th centuries AD ever existed and could not exist in
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principle. The said above is well correlated with the interval of the Civilizing
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events related to the horse breeding shown in the table.
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To illustrate: the period of the cavalry introduction (¹ 13 in the table)
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was preceeded by the period of development of saddle-making and invention
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of harness and saddles (¹ 12). In turn this period follows Period 11 where
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in parallel with the development of the raw leather dressing technology
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required for production of the harness the horses were trained to be used
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to the saddles etc. The corresponding scientific conclusions can be done
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related to the consequence of the historical intervals of the following Civilizing
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events within the whole time period before 1500 AD. The basic principle is
sp 500 historical data
T
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the uninterrupted chain of the civilizing events
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of our chronology.
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As seen from the table
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from the «Start» of the civilization beginning with the gaining the fire
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(«Prometeus Effect») up to 1500 AD accounts in total some 15. Thus the
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age of our civilization is estimated as 7500 years. Its notable that the number
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practically coincides with the Biblical («Byzantine») calendar from the World
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Creation and with the beginning of Neolithic period as defined by archeology.
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That moment
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«Neanderthal» and «Homo Sapiens» which can not be closed by any
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evolutionary process per C. Darvin as between them an extracivilizational
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genetic jump had occurred.
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Shrinking of the intervals of the civilizing events almost down to zero
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(see Fig.1) nowadays indicates the approaching end of our civilization
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not the apocalyptical finish but a new extracivilizational jump.
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Figure 2 illustrates correlation between the Earth population and total
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annual energy consumption time wise. According to Curve 2 the drastic
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changes have started after 1500 AD. Curve 1 corresponds to the natural
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biological reproduction of the humanity and to consumption of the natural
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energy sources such as dry wood
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existed prior and up to the year 1500 AD. Without the consequent technical
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revolution the human population would account for only 800 million. If
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nothing is done for the stabilization of the population growth the Curve 4
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would be realized. It is doubtful
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succeeded as yet in the search for more powerful and less harmful energy
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source than nuclear energy while the available fossil fuels do not offer
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enough energy for the relevant population growth. Thus
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the Curve 4 will turn into Curve 3: this is the scenario of Caribbean nuclear
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Fig. 2. Human population and world consumption of energy
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