The "Axis of Evil" definition strolls around the world from the magic touch of the American President, George Bush. Three countries are in this axis -Iraq, North Korea and Iran. Sometimes for variety, they pretend that it should be time to plant Syria too into the axis.

  While seeking to understand how Bush acts, they often compare him with a Texas cowboy from western movies who strives to resolve any problems with the help of a reliable Colt. We see this also today on the dusty roads in the Iraqi deserts.

    Instead of legitimate conflict resolution methods or the development of new international rules which allow the removal of a dictator of one country or another on a lawful basis, instead of a difficult and long build-up of a logical and just world order, the U.S. president has preferred to rely on the immediate dominance of monetary and military power and, having defied international law openly, decided to achieve his narrowly nationalistic goals by military means, unleashing, from all points of view, a criminal slaughter.

  From legal and moral points of view, this has placed Mr. Bush on the same fundamental level as Mr. Hussein. Both of these men are criminals, since they are breaking the law, and both should be in prison.

   How does one put them there?  It is interesting that no one has even put forward this question. And it is difficult to overextend the scale of the consequences of this war.

   The war in Iraq is ending a 15-year period of the absolute lead in U.S. power which began after the break-up of the USSR.  The world community is frightened and irritated by the irrational behavior of the "Texas" president, and changes in geopolitical attitudes won't be delayed for long.

  The search for a counterbalance for the Americans who have departed reasonable limits will become a vital need literally of all countries. Not only the Arabian East, as it would, but both the European leaders and Japan, and even Canada may refine their own reference points appreciably. It is unlikely the "developed" partners will begin to clash with Washington openly. However, it is obvious they want for a certain controllable and predictable state formation, or a "second pole" of the Soviet type which has enough power and economic independence for containment of the spontaneous, narrowly nationalistic impulses of the "elder partner."

  The weak Arab or African countries are not suited for this role.

  China, which up to now has been making use of the communist flag, and per se is turning into a country of national and feudal autocracy ,too dependent, secluded and passive in the geopolitical sense, appearing not as a communist, but as a national state that in principle suits everyone fully.

     That is why Europe's eyes ever more frequently turn toward Russia and the other countries, which were created in place of the Soviet Union, and which ever so recently was the "second pole" of the world community. Here, on the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the tendencies of the break-up have given way smoothly to processes of unification. Every year, the growing integration of these states allows reaching the conclusion that the union is being restored.

     The unification of the countries on a sixth part of the land, which even recently has been called "the giant with feet of clay," slowly is turning into geopolitics of a new quality.   In particular, it, this unification, is the only possible counterbalance to the U.S. in the process of the construction of a lawful world order. Speaking primitively, "without a retaliatory nuclear club it is difficult to understand what is good and what is bad."

   Some occasionally name Europe, which is unified in the European Union and has the NATO military organization, as a counterbalance. However, the modern composition and structure of NATO does not reflect the changing realities of the power confrontations and make this organization lifeless. In the absence of a communist threat, the European Union does not need U.S. supervision, but, conversely, is inclined to develop a robust competition to the monopolistically bossy American military machine. NATO is continuing to extend itself to the east, but already this doesn't mean much today. Within NATO powerful oppositions are growing which in the absence of a communist enemy are coming to the fore.  The capricious behavior of Turkey - a NATO member - is a fine example of it. 

  The illegal basis of the war in Iraq exaggerates the smoldering conflict of East and West, but today, when there is no Soviet threat, the allotment of forces is totally different. 

 The oil interests of the American corporations, which lie at the basis of the war, engender political and economic destabilization, cause a valid irritation not only of the countries of the Arab world, but also of Europe and Asia, and the formation of various anti-American unions of various levels and categories - from Islamic and communist to anti-globalists of all stripes and nationalities - becomes only a question of time.

  This conflict will be developing even further, sometimes flaring up, sometimes dying away and at each turn of its development approximating a genuine understanding of what is taking place in the world.

   So, let's formulate it.  The global, worldwide character of production and consumption, including of oil, comes into the sharpest conflict with the national and local structure of mankind, where money and natural resources are distributed in accordance with national methods of ownership.

  One needs to understand that little Iraq cannot possess 30% of the planet's oil reserves. It is impossible to allow a similar monopolism of ownership - stagnation will ensue. The very same thing concerns the rest, and not only natural, but also monetary, scientific and all other resources.

   On the other hand, the West cannot irresponsibly pump natural fossils from the poor countries, while not developing a UNIFIED social structure, a unified lawful space and social guarantees.

  The whole of the 20th century and at the start of the 21st century there has been and is a struggle of the nations for global resources. The struggle is quite often bloody, not increasing, but destroying mankind's resources, both human and economic. The only way to put an end to this is to begin to build a global constitutional state. The axis of evil never passed through the East or the West, the axis of evil passes through our unwillingness to be a single whole.

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Vlad Melamed , 2003. Toronto